Lightning Network · research manuscript · full version available on request
Routing Centralization in the Lightning Network: A Budget-aware Perspective
Examines routing centralization as an economic question rather than a purely topological one: how much liquidity an adversary would need to sit on a meaningful share of routed payments. Introduces Budget-to-Coverage and Coverage-to-Budget as measurement lenses.
- Formalizes Budgeted Path Coverage and shows a unit-cost special case is NP-complete even on trees.
- Solves it with a scalable greedy approximation accelerated by CELF (cost-effective lazy forward).
- Simulates roughly one million payments per configuration in CLoTH across six network snapshots spanning 2019–2026, using realized routing paths instead of shortest-path proxies.
Under the paper's model, coverage for a fixed BTC budget declines over time, and larger payments look less capturable.
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